A Novel Generation Method for the PV Power Time Series Combining the Decomposition Technique and Markov Chain Theory

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation has made considerable developments in recent years. But its intermittent and volatility of its output has seriously affected the security operation of the power system. In order to better understand the PV generation and provide sufficient data support for analysis the impacts, a novel generation method for PV power time series combining decomposition technique and Markov chain theory is presented in this paper. It digs important factors from historical data from existing PV plants and then reproduce new data with similar patterns. In detail, the proposed method first decomposes the PV power time series into ideal output curve, amplitude parameter series and random fluctuating component three parts. Then generating daily ideal output curve by the extraction of typical daily data, amplitude parameter series based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and random component based on random sampling respectively. Finally the generated three parts are recombined into new PV power time series by the decomposition formula. Data obtained from real-world PV plants in Gansu, China validates the effectiveness of the proposed method. The generated series can simulate the basic statistical, distribution and fluctuation characteristics of the measured series.