Abstract
This paper considers the application of Bayesian probabilistic networks (BPNs) to large-scale risk based decision making in regard to earthquake risks. A recently developed risk management framework is outlined which utilises Bayesian probabilistic modelling, generic indicator based risk models and geographical information systems. The proposed framework comprises several modules: A module on the probabilistic description of potential future earthquake shaking intensity, a module on the probabilistic assessment of spatial variability of soil liquefaction, a module on damage assessment of buildings and a fourth module on the consequences of an earthquake. Each of these modules is integrated into a BPN. Special attention is given to aggregated risk, i.e. the risk contribution from assets at multiple locations in a city subjected to the same earthquake. The application of the methodology is illustrated on an example considering a portfolio of reinforced concrete structures in a city located close to the
western part of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey.
western part of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey.
Originalsprog | Engelsk |
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Tidsskrift | Georisk |
Vol/bind | 5 |
Udgave nummer | 1 |
Sider (fra-til) | 2-24 |
ISSN | 1749-9518 |
Status | Udgivet - 2011 |
Udgivet eksternt | Ja |