Flow Forecasting in Drainage Systems with Extrapolated Radar Rainfall Data and Auto Calibration on Flow Observations

Forecasting of flows, overflow volumes, water levels, etc. in drainage systems can be applied in real time control of drainage systems in the future climate in order to fully utilize system capacity and thus save possible construction costs. An online system for forecasting flows and water levels in a small urban catchment has been developed. The forecast is based on application of radar rainfall data, which by a correlation based technique, is extrapolated with a lead time up to two hours. The runoff forecast in the drainage system is based on a fully distributed MOUSE model which is auto-calibrated on flow measurements in order to produce the best possible forecast for the drainage system at all times. The system shows great potential for the implementation of real time control in drainage systems and forecasting flows and water levels.