Influence of Met-Ocean Condition Forecasting Uncertainties on Weather Window Predictions for Offshore Operations

The article briefly presents a novel methodology of weather window estimation for offshore operations and mainly focuses on effects of met-ocean condition forecasting uncertainties on weather window predictions when using the proposed methodology. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology has the capacity to retain the uncertainties of met-ocean condition forecasting and transfer them into uncertainties of probability of operation failure. In addition to that, improvements to the failure function, used to define operation failure are presented. The failure function is modified to include stochastic variables, representing met-ocean forecasting uncertainties and the results of such modification are given in terms of predicted weather windows for a selected test case.