Carotid plaque detection improves the predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc score in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: The ARAPACIS Study

Stefania Basili, Lorenzo Loffredo, Daniele Pastori, Marco Proietti, Alessio Farcomeni, Anna Rita Vestri, Pasquale Pignatelli, Giovanni Davi, William R Hiatt, Gregory Y H Lip, Gino Roberto Corazza, Francesco Perticone, Francesco Violi, in collaboration with ARAPACIS Study Investigators

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23 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Vascular disease (VD), as assessed by history of myocardial infarction or peripheral artery disease or aortic plaque, increases stroke risk in atrial fibrillation (AF), and is a component of risk assessment using the CHA2DS2-VASc score. We investigated if systemic atherosclerosis as detected by ultrasound carotid plaque (CP) could improve the predictive value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score.

METHODS: We analysed data from the ARAPACIS study, an observational study including 2027 Italian patients with non-valvular AF, in whom CP was detected using Doppler Ultrasonography.

RESULTS: VD was reported in 351 (17.3%) patients while CP was detected in 16.6% patients. Adding CP to the VD definition leaded to higher VD prevalence (30.9%). During a median [IQR] follow-up time of 36months, 56 (2.8%) stroke/TIA events were recorded. Survival analysis showed that conventional VD alone did not increase the risk of stroke (Log-Rank: 0.009, p=0.924), while addition of CP to conventional VD was significantly associated to an increased risk of stroke (LR: 5.730, p=0.017). Cox regression analysis showed that VD+CP was independently associated with stroke (HR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.05-3.01, p=0.0318). Reclassification analysis showed that VD+CP allowed a significant risk reclassification when compared to VD alone in predicting stroke at 36months (NRI: 0.192, 95% CI: 0.028-0.323, p=0.032).

CONCLUSIONS: In non-valvular AF patients the addition of ultrasound detection of carotid plaque to conventional VD significantly increases the predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc score for stroke.

Original languageEnglish
JournalInternational Journal of Cardiology
Volume48
Issue number3
Pages (from-to)143-149
Number of pages9
ISSN0167-5273
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Externally publishedYes

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