Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems

Søren Liedtke Thorndahl; Troels Sander Poulsen; Thomas  Bøvith; Morten Borup; Malte Ahm; Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen; Morten Grum; Michael R. Rasmussen; Rasphall Gill; Peter Steen Mikkelsen

Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems

Søren Liedtke Thorndahl, Troels Sander Poulsen, Thomas Bøvith, Morten Borup, Malte Ahm, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen, Morten Grum, Michael R. Rasmussen, Rasphall Gill, Peter Steen Mikkelsen

Research output: Contribution to book/anthology/report/conference proceeding › Article in proceeding › Research › peer-review

Abstract

Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 hours. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Urban Drainage Modelling : Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
Editors	Dušan Prodanović , Jasna Plavšić
Number of pages	12
Publisher	Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade
Publication date	2012
ISBN (Electronic)	978-86-7518-156-9
Publication status	Published - 2012
Event	Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling - Belgrade, Serbia Duration: 4 Sept 2012 → 6 Sept 2012

Conference

Conference	Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
Country/Territory	Serbia
City	Belgrade
Period	04/09/2012 → 06/09/2012

Keywords

DMI-HIRLAM
Forecast
Numerical Weather Model
Radar
Runoff Model

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Thorndahl, S. L., Poulsen, T. S., Bøvith, T., Borup, M., Ahm, M., Nielsen, J. E., Grum, M., Rasmussen, M. R., Gill, R., & Mikkelsen, P. S. (2012). Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems. In D. Prodanović , & J. Plavšić (Eds.), Urban Drainage Modelling: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade.

Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke ; Poulsen, Troels Sander ; Bøvith, Thomas et al. / Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems. Urban Drainage Modelling: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling. editor / Dušan Prodanović ; Jasna Plavšić. Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, 2012.

@inproceedings{07e95780f79041b9a41f07423e37ca7c,

title = "Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems",

abstract = "Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 hours. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times.",

keywords = "DMI-HIRLAM, Forecast, Numerical Weather Model, Radar, Runoff Model, DMI-HIRLAM, Forecast, Numerical Weather Model, Radar, Runoff Model",

author = "Thorndahl, {S{\o}ren Liedtke} and Poulsen, {Troels Sander} and Thomas B{\o}vith and Morten Borup and Malte Ahm and Nielsen, {Jesper Ellerb{\ae}k} and Morten Grum and Rasmussen, {Michael R.} and Rasphall Gill and Mikkelsen, {Peter Steen}",

year = "2012",

language = "English",

editor = "{Prodanovi{\'c} }, {Du{\v s}an } and Plav{\v s}i{\'c}, {Jasna }",

booktitle = "Urban Drainage Modelling",

publisher = "Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade",

note = "Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling ; Conference date: 04-09-2012 Through 06-09-2012",

}

Thorndahl, SL, Poulsen, TS, Bøvith, T, Borup, M, Ahm, M, Nielsen, JE, Grum, M, Rasmussen, MR, Gill, R & Mikkelsen, PS 2012, Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems. in D Prodanović & J Plavšić (eds), Urban Drainage Modelling: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling. Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling, Belgrade, Serbia, 04/09/2012.

Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems. / Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Poulsen, Troels Sander; Bøvith, Thomas et al.
Urban Drainage Modelling: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling. ed. / Dušan Prodanović ; Jasna Plavšić. Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, 2012.

Research output: Contribution to book/anthology/report/conference proceeding › Article in proceeding › Research › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems

AU - Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

AU - Poulsen, Troels Sander

AU - Bøvith, Thomas

AU - Borup, Morten

AU - Ahm, Malte

AU - Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk

AU - Grum, Morten

AU - Rasmussen, Michael R.

AU - Gill, Rasphall

AU - Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 hours. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times.

AB - Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 hours. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times.

KW - DMI-HIRLAM

KW - Forecast

KW - Numerical Weather Model

KW - Radar

KW - Runoff Model

KW - DMI-HIRLAM

KW - Forecast

KW - Numerical Weather Model

KW - Radar

KW - Runoff Model

M3 - Article in proceeding

BT - Urban Drainage Modelling

A2 - Prodanović , Dušan

A2 - Plavšić, Jasna

PB - Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade

T2 - Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling

Y2 - 4 September 2012 through 6 September 2012

ER -

Thorndahl SL, Poulsen TS, Bøvith T, Borup M, Ahm M, Nielsen JE et al. Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems. In Prodanović D, Plavšić J, editors, Urban Drainage Modelling: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling. Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade. 2012

Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems

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Conference

Keywords

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