Safety and Inspection Planning of Older Installations

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article

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A basic assumption often made in risk- and reliability-based inspection planning is that a Bayesian approach can be used. This implies that probabilities of failure can be updated in a consistent way when new information (from inspections and repairs) becomes available. The Bayesian approach and a no-crack detection assumption imply that the inspection time intervals usually become longer and longer with time. For ageing platforms several small cracks should be expected to be observed according to the bath-tub curve development often assumed - implying an increased risk for crack initiation (and coalescence of small cracks) and increased crack growth. This should imply shorter inspection time intervals for ageing structures. Different approaches for updating inspection plans for older installations are proposed. The most promisingmethod consists of increasing the rate of crack initiations at the end of the expected lifetime - corresponding to a bath-tub hazard rate effect. The approach illustrated is for welded steel details in platforms. Systems effects are considered, including the use of dependence between inspection and failure events in different components for inspection planning.
Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Risk and Reliability
Publication date2008
Volume222
Journal number3
Pages403-417
Number of pages15
ISSN1748-006X
DOIs
StatePublished

Keywords

  • Reliability and risk-based inspection planning, Ageing offshore installations, Bayesian approach, System reliability, Fatigue

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