TY - JOUR
T1 - Urban pluvial flood prediction
T2 - a case study evaluating radar rainfall nowcasts and numerical weather prediction models as model inputs
AU - Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke
AU - Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk
AU - Jensen, David Getreuer
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps in real-time with high resolution radar rainfall data, but rather limited forecast performance in predicting floods with lead times more than half an hour.
AB - Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps in real-time with high resolution radar rainfall data, but rather limited forecast performance in predicting floods with lead times more than half an hour.
KW - Numerical weather models
KW - Pluvial flood modelling
KW - Radar nowcasting
KW - Real-time modelling of drainage systems
KW - Numerical weather models
KW - Pluvial flood modelling
KW - radar nowcasting
KW - Real-time modelling of drainage systems
U2 - 10.2166/wst.2016.474
DO - 10.2166/wst.2016.474
M3 - Journal article
SN - 0273-1223
VL - 74
SP - 2599
EP - 2610
JO - Water Science and Technology
JF - Water Science and Technology
IS - 11
ER -