Forecasting Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Psychiatric Care Capacity Demand

The incidence of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) in Denmark has increased over the past decade. Though funding for psychiatric care has also risen, the increase in funding has not been able to make up for the increase in care capacity needs. ADHD has, in Region North Psychiatry, taken up most of the capacity increase. We seek to forecast whether the increase in ADHD incidence continues, flattens out or maybe even drops. We will focus on data driven mathematical and statistical approaches ranging from simple moving averages over common regression to machine learning and even AI. The expected outcome of this thesis is suggestions for models that forecast ADHD care capacity needs into the future, meaningfully and far enough into the future for capacity planners to use them.