A clinical prediction score for transient versus persistent childhood immune thrombocytopenia

Background: Childhood immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is an autoimmune bleeding disorder. The prognosis (transient, persistent, or chronic ITP) remains difficult to predict. The morbidity is most pronounced in children with persistent and chronic ITP. Clinical characteristics are associated with ITP outcomes, but there are no validated multivariate prediction models. Objective: Development and external validatation of the Childhood ITP Recovery Score to predict transient versus persistent ITP in children with newly diagnosed ITP. Methods: Patients with a diagnosis platelet count ≤ 20 × 10⁹/L and age below 16 years were included from two prospective multicenter studies (NOPHO ITP study, N = 377 [development cohort]; TIKI trial, N = 194 [external validation]). The primary outcome was transient ITP (complete recovery with platelets ≥100 × 10⁹/L 3 months after diagnosis) versus persistent ITP. Age, sex, mucosal bleeding, preceding infection/vaccination, insidious onset, and diagnosis platelet count were used as predictors. Results: In external validation, the score predicted transient versus persistent ITP at 3 months follow-up with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.71. In patients predicted to have a high chance of recovery, we observed 85%, 90%, and 95% recovered 3, 6, and 12 months after the diagnosis. For patients predicted to have a low chance of recovery, this was 32%, 46%, and 71%. The score also predicted cessation of bleeding symptoms and the response to intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIg). Conclusion: The Childhood ITP Recovery Score predicts prognosis and may be useful to individualize clinical management. In future research, the additional predictive value of biomarkers can be compared to this score. A risk calculator is available (http://www.itprecoveryscore.org).