A framework for offshore load environment modeling

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Abstrakt

In the present paper, we propose a novel decision analytical framework for systems modeling in the context of risk informed integrity management of offshore facilities. Our focus concerns the development of system models representing environmental loads associated with storm events. Appreciating that system models in general serve to facilitate the optimal ranking of decision alternatives, we formulate the problem of systems modeling as an optimization problem to be solved jointly with the ranking of decision alternatives. Taking offset in recent developments in structure learning and Bayesian regression techniques, a generic approach for the modeling of environmental loads is established, which accommodates for a joint utilization of phenomenological understanding and knowledge contained in databases of observations. In this manner, we provide a framework and corresponding techniques supporting the combination of bottom-up and topdown modeling. Moreover, since phenomenological understanding as well as analysis of databases may lead to the identification of several competing system models, we include these in the formulation of the optimization problem. The proposed framework and utilized techniques are illustrated on a principal example. The example considers systems modeling and decision optimization in the context of possible evacuation of an offshore facility in the face of an emerging storm event.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelASME 2018 Proceedings of the 37th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering - OMAE
Antal sider10
Vol/bind7B: Ocean Engineering
ForlagAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineers
Publikationsdato2018
SiderV07BT06A006
ArtikelnummerOMAE2018-77674
ISBN (Elektronisk)978-0-7918-5127-2
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2018
Begivenhed37th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering - Madrid, Spanien
Varighed: 17 jun. 201822 jun. 2018
Konferencens nummer: 37
https://www.asme.org/events/omae

Konference

Konference37th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
Nummer37
LandSpanien
ByMadrid
Periode17/06/201822/06/2018
Internetadresse
NavnInternational Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. Proceedings
ISSN1523-651X

Citationsformater

Glavind, S. T., & Nielsen, M. H. F. (2018). A framework for offshore load environment modeling. I ASME 2018 Proceedings of the 37th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering - OMAE (Bind 7B: Ocean Engineering, s. V07BT06A006). [OMAE2018-77674] American Society of Mechanical Engineers. International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. Proceedings https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2018-77674