Abstrakt

This paper presents a novel decision analytical framework for systems modeling in the context of the risk-informed integrity management of offshore facilities. Our focus concerns the development of system models representing environmental loads associated with storm events. Appreciating that system models in general serve to facilitate the optimal ranking of decision alternatives, we formulate the problem of systems modeling as an optimization problem to be solved jointly with the ranking of integrity management decision alternatives. Taking offset in recent developments in structure learning and Bayesian regression techniques, a generic approach for the modeling of environmental loads is established, which accommodates for a joint utilization of phenomenological understanding and knowledge contained in databases of observations. In this manner, we provide a framework and corresponding techniques supporting the combination of bottom-up and top-down modeling. Moreover, since phenomenological understanding and analysis of databases may lead to the identification of several competing system models, we include these in the formulation of the optimization problem. The proposed framework and utilized techniques are illustrated in an example. The example considers systems modeling and decision optimization in the context of a possible evacuation of an offshore facility in the face of an emerging storm event.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
ArtikelnummerOMAE-19-1059
TidsskriftJournal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering
Vol/bind142
Udgave nummer2
Sider (fra-til)021702
ISSN0892-7219
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2020
Begivenhed37th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering - Madrid, Spanien
Varighed: 17 jun. 201822 jun. 2018
Konferencens nummer: 37
https://www.asme.org/events/omae

Konference

Konference37th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
Nummer37
LandSpanien
ByMadrid
Periode17/06/201822/06/2018
Internetadresse

Emneord

  • Ocean waves and associated statistics
  • Structural safety and risk analysis
  • System integrity assessment

Citationsformater