A large-dimensional factor analysis of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchases

Publikation: Working paperForskningpeer review

Resumé

This paper assesses the economy-wide effects of US unconventional monetary policy shocks. A precise identification of the unconventional monetary policy shocks is achieved by imposing zero and sign restrictions on a number of impulse responses from a large-dimensional dynamic factor model. In particular, an unconventional expansionary monetary policy shock is identified as a shock that increases the Federal Reserve's market share of US treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and leads to an improvement in the real economy and improved credit conditions.

I find that an unconventional monetary policy shock significantly drives down the long-term interest rate spread and the credit spread, and improves both the financial market conditions and the commercial and industrial loans activity. Moreover, the impact on the real economy is significant.

The roughly 2 trillion purchases of mortgage backed securities by the Federal Reserve Bank avoided a severe downturn according to estimates from a counterfactual analysis.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
UdgiverDepartment of Business and Management
Sider1-55
Antal sider55
ISBN (Trykt)9788791646508
StatusUdgivet - 2015

Emneord

  • unconventional monetary policy
  • zero lower bound
  • large cross-sections
  • dynamic factor model
  • factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)
  • Expectation-Maximization algorithm

Citer dette

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A large-dimensional factor analysis of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchases. / Bork, Lasse.

Department of Business and Management, 2015. s. 1-55.

Publikation: Working paperForskningpeer review

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AB - This paper assesses the economy-wide effects of US unconventional monetary policy shocks. A precise identification of the unconventional monetary policy shocks is achieved by imposing zero and sign restrictions on a number of impulse responses from a large-dimensional dynamic factor model. In particular, an unconventional expansionary monetary policy shock is identified as a shock that increases the Federal Reserve's market share of US treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and leads to an improvement in the real economy and improved credit conditions.I find that an unconventional monetary policy shock significantly drives down the long-term interest rate spread and the credit spread, and improves both the financial market conditions and the commercial and industrial loans activity. Moreover, the impact on the real economy is significant.The roughly 2 trillion purchases of mortgage backed securities by the Federal Reserve Bank avoided a severe downturn according to estimates from a counterfactual analysis.

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KW - large cross-sections

KW - dynamic factor model

KW - factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)

KW - Expectation-Maximization algorithm

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