Analyses of thermal storage capacity and smart grid flexibility in Danish single-family houses

This paper describes theoretical analyses of typical detached Danish single family houses’ ability to provide thermal capacity and thus flexibility, in an electricity grid, if they were heated by individual heat pumps.
A set of archetype house models have been set up for analyses of their ability for moving energy use in time by dynamic simulations in BSim (Wittchen et al., 2000-2019). The archetypes was established in order to analyse single-family houses constructed in different periods, usually related to shifts in building regulations or building traditions.
Finally, results from archetype modelling are scaled to the total number of Danish single-family houses located outside district heating areas to estimate the future thermal capacity in these houses. Analyses showed that up to 99 % of the energy demand for space heating within peak hours can be moved outside peak hours, with acceptable influence on the indoor temperature.
The paper describes the simulation approach and the results for different archetype houses as well as upscaling to nation-wide thermal storage potential. Moreover, the paper describes flexibility studies on selected houses based on both peak response and price signal response.