Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

Amir Shahirinia, Amin Hajizadeh, David C Yu

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapport/konference proceedingKonferenceartikel i proceedingForskningpeer review

4 Citationer (Scopus)
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Abstract

One of the major challenges with the increase in wind power generation is the uncertain nature of wind speed. So far the uncertainty about wind speed has been presented through probability distributions. Also the existing models that consider the uncertainty of the wind speed primarily view the distributions of the wind speed over a wind farm as being homogeneous. However, the uncertainty about these wind speed models has not yet been considered. In this paper the Bayesian approach to taking into account the uncertainty inherent in the wind speed model has been presented. The proposed Bayesian predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelProceedings of 2017 IEEE 17th International Conference on Ubiquitous Wireless Broadband (ICUWB)
Antal sider6
ForlagIEEE Press
Publikationsdatosep. 2017
ISBN (Elektronisk)978-1-5090-5007-9
DOI
StatusUdgivet - sep. 2017
Begivenhed2017 IEEE 17th International Conference on Ubiquitous Wireless Broadband (ICUWB) - Salamanca, Spanien
Varighed: 12 sep. 201715 sep. 2017

Konference

Konference2017 IEEE 17th International Conference on Ubiquitous Wireless Broadband (ICUWB)
Land/OmrådeSpanien
BySalamanca
Periode12/09/201715/09/2017
NavnIEEE International Conference on Ultra-Wideband (ICUWB)
ISSN2162-6588

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