Combining exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief network to model social-ecological systems – case study on Baltic herring and salmon fisheries

Mia Pihlajamäki, Annukka Lehikoinen, Päivi Elisabet Haapasaari, Simo Sarkki, Lauri Ronkainen, Timo P. Karjalainen

Publikation: Konferencebidrag uden forlag/tidsskriftPosterForskning

Resumé

We developed exploratory scenarios for the future state of the Baltic herring and salmon fisheries in 2040. The main focus was on fisheries management and their contributions to food security and safety objectives. We compiled four alternative storylines for the future states based on how identified societal (social, technological, environmental, economic, political, and value-based) drivers, and related pressures, states, impacts and responses behave under different combinations of selected key uncertainties, which were 1) integrated vs. fragmented governance, and 2) extend of human impact. The aim of this paper is to combine the exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief network (BBN) to structure and examine quantitatively the implications of changes in the societal driving forces to the social-ecological system (SES) and ultimately to the fisheries management objectives. For this purpose, we created a BBN scenario synthesis model, which covers all possible combinations of the states of the scenario-forming factors and visualizes the assumed causalities between them. In this model, co-occurrence of certain states are more likely than some other combinations, and the model – when populated with probabilities – weighs the scenarios based on their realization probabilities. The results unravel synergies and trade-offs between the management objectives under multiple alternative scenarios given certain societal conditions in 2040. We conclude that combining exploratory scenarios and BBN can provide useful information for the long-term sustainable management of environmental resources by improving understanding of the SES dynamics and especially of the societal drivers that could potentially bring about change.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
Publikationsdatosep. 2017
StatusUdgivet - sep. 2017
BegivenhedICES Annual Science Conference 2017 - Greater Fort Lauderdale/Broward County Convention Center , Fort Lauderdale, USA
Varighed: 18 sep. 201721 sep. 2017
http://www.ices.dk/news-and-events/asc/ASC2017/Pages/default.aspx

Konference

KonferenceICES Annual Science Conference 2017
LokationGreater Fort Lauderdale/Broward County Convention Center
LandUSA
ByFort Lauderdale
Periode18/09/201721/09/2017
Internetadresse

Fingerprint

fishery
fishery management
food safety
environmental economics
food security
anthropogenic effect
resource

Citer dette

Pihlajamäki, M., Lehikoinen, A., Haapasaari, P. E., Sarkki, S., Ronkainen, L., & Karjalainen, T. P. (2017). Combining exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief network to model social-ecological systems – case study on Baltic herring and salmon fisheries. Poster session præsenteret på ICES Annual Science Conference 2017, Fort Lauderdale, USA.
Pihlajamäki, Mia ; Lehikoinen, Annukka ; Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet ; Sarkki, Simo ; Ronkainen, Lauri ; Karjalainen, Timo P. / Combining exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief network to model social-ecological systems – case study on Baltic herring and salmon fisheries. Poster session præsenteret på ICES Annual Science Conference 2017, Fort Lauderdale, USA.
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title = "Combining exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief network to model social-ecological systems – case study on Baltic herring and salmon fisheries",
abstract = "We developed exploratory scenarios for the future state of the Baltic herring and salmon fisheries in 2040. The main focus was on fisheries management and their contributions to food security and safety objectives. We compiled four alternative storylines for the future states based on how identified societal (social, technological, environmental, economic, political, and value-based) drivers, and related pressures, states, impacts and responses behave under different combinations of selected key uncertainties, which were 1) integrated vs. fragmented governance, and 2) extend of human impact. The aim of this paper is to combine the exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief network (BBN) to structure and examine quantitatively the implications of changes in the societal driving forces to the social-ecological system (SES) and ultimately to the fisheries management objectives. For this purpose, we created a BBN scenario synthesis model, which covers all possible combinations of the states of the scenario-forming factors and visualizes the assumed causalities between them. In this model, co-occurrence of certain states are more likely than some other combinations, and the model – when populated with probabilities – weighs the scenarios based on their realization probabilities. The results unravel synergies and trade-offs between the management objectives under multiple alternative scenarios given certain societal conditions in 2040. We conclude that combining exploratory scenarios and BBN can provide useful information for the long-term sustainable management of environmental resources by improving understanding of the SES dynamics and especially of the societal drivers that could potentially bring about change.",
author = "Mia Pihlajam{\"a}ki and Annukka Lehikoinen and Haapasaari, {P{\"a}ivi Elisabet} and Simo Sarkki and Lauri Ronkainen and Karjalainen, {Timo P.}",
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Pihlajamäki, M, Lehikoinen, A, Haapasaari, PE, Sarkki, S, Ronkainen, L & Karjalainen, TP 2017, 'Combining exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief network to model social-ecological systems – case study on Baltic herring and salmon fisheries', Fort Lauderdale, USA, 18/09/2017 - 21/09/2017, .

Combining exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief network to model social-ecological systems – case study on Baltic herring and salmon fisheries. / Pihlajamäki, Mia; Lehikoinen, Annukka; Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet; Sarkki, Simo; Ronkainen, Lauri ; Karjalainen, Timo P.

2017. Poster session præsenteret på ICES Annual Science Conference 2017, Fort Lauderdale, USA.

Publikation: Konferencebidrag uden forlag/tidsskriftPosterForskning

TY - CONF

T1 - Combining exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief network to model social-ecological systems – case study on Baltic herring and salmon fisheries

AU - Pihlajamäki, Mia

AU - Lehikoinen, Annukka

AU - Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet

AU - Sarkki, Simo

AU - Ronkainen, Lauri

AU - Karjalainen, Timo P.

PY - 2017/9

Y1 - 2017/9

N2 - We developed exploratory scenarios for the future state of the Baltic herring and salmon fisheries in 2040. The main focus was on fisheries management and their contributions to food security and safety objectives. We compiled four alternative storylines for the future states based on how identified societal (social, technological, environmental, economic, political, and value-based) drivers, and related pressures, states, impacts and responses behave under different combinations of selected key uncertainties, which were 1) integrated vs. fragmented governance, and 2) extend of human impact. The aim of this paper is to combine the exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief network (BBN) to structure and examine quantitatively the implications of changes in the societal driving forces to the social-ecological system (SES) and ultimately to the fisheries management objectives. For this purpose, we created a BBN scenario synthesis model, which covers all possible combinations of the states of the scenario-forming factors and visualizes the assumed causalities between them. In this model, co-occurrence of certain states are more likely than some other combinations, and the model – when populated with probabilities – weighs the scenarios based on their realization probabilities. The results unravel synergies and trade-offs between the management objectives under multiple alternative scenarios given certain societal conditions in 2040. We conclude that combining exploratory scenarios and BBN can provide useful information for the long-term sustainable management of environmental resources by improving understanding of the SES dynamics and especially of the societal drivers that could potentially bring about change.

AB - We developed exploratory scenarios for the future state of the Baltic herring and salmon fisheries in 2040. The main focus was on fisheries management and their contributions to food security and safety objectives. We compiled four alternative storylines for the future states based on how identified societal (social, technological, environmental, economic, political, and value-based) drivers, and related pressures, states, impacts and responses behave under different combinations of selected key uncertainties, which were 1) integrated vs. fragmented governance, and 2) extend of human impact. The aim of this paper is to combine the exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief network (BBN) to structure and examine quantitatively the implications of changes in the societal driving forces to the social-ecological system (SES) and ultimately to the fisheries management objectives. For this purpose, we created a BBN scenario synthesis model, which covers all possible combinations of the states of the scenario-forming factors and visualizes the assumed causalities between them. In this model, co-occurrence of certain states are more likely than some other combinations, and the model – when populated with probabilities – weighs the scenarios based on their realization probabilities. The results unravel synergies and trade-offs between the management objectives under multiple alternative scenarios given certain societal conditions in 2040. We conclude that combining exploratory scenarios and BBN can provide useful information for the long-term sustainable management of environmental resources by improving understanding of the SES dynamics and especially of the societal drivers that could potentially bring about change.

M3 - Poster

ER -

Pihlajamäki M, Lehikoinen A, Haapasaari PE, Sarkki S, Ronkainen L, Karjalainen TP. Combining exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief network to model social-ecological systems – case study on Baltic herring and salmon fisheries. 2017. Poster session præsenteret på ICES Annual Science Conference 2017, Fort Lauderdale, USA.