Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems

Søren Liedtke Thorndahl, Troels Sander Poulsen, Thomas Bøvith, Morten Borup, Malte Ahm, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen, Morten Grum, Michael R. Rasmussen, Rasphall Gill, Peter Steen Mikkelsen

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Abstrakt

Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 hours. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelUrban Drainage Modelling : Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
RedaktørerDušan Prodanović , Jasna Plavšić
Antal sider12
ForlagFaculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade
Publikationsdato2012
ISBN (Elektronisk)978-86-7518-156-9
StatusUdgivet - 2012
BegivenhedNinth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling - Belgrade, Serbien
Varighed: 4 sep. 20126 sep. 2012

Konference

KonferenceNinth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
LandSerbien
ByBelgrade
Periode04/09/201206/09/2012

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Emneord

  • DMI-HIRLAM
  • Forecast
  • Numerical Weather Model
  • Radar
  • Runoff Model

Citationsformater

Thorndahl, S. L., Poulsen, T. S., Bøvith, T., Borup, M., Ahm, M., Nielsen, J. E., Grum, M., Rasmussen, M. R., Gill, R., & Mikkelsen, P. S. (2012). Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems. I D. Prodanović , & J. Plavšić (red.), Urban Drainage Modelling: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade.