Developing new forecasting accuracy measure considering Product's shelf life: Effect on availability and waste

Flemming Max Møller Christensen*, Casper Solheim-Bojer, Iskra Dukovska-Popovska, Kenn Steger-Jensen


Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

3 Citationer (Scopus)


The purpose of this study is to propose a measure for evaluating forecast accuracy that incorporates the asymmetrical impact of fresh food products’ (FFPs) shelf-life. The proposed measure is compared against traditional forecast accuracy measures in terms of the effect on availability (i.e. fill-rate), inventory building (i.e. freshness) and FFP expiration (i.e. waste). A case study of one of Denmark's largest grocery wholesalers was used to identify the asymmetrical impact of over-/under-forecasting for 17 FFPs, followed by a simulation to investigate the effect of using the proposed measure. Findings show that including the shelf-life and the asymmetrical impact of over-forecasting with/without price reduction gives marginally lower fill-rate but an improved freshness of FFPs and a lower inventory level. This study adds to current literature on forecast accuracy measures by focusing on forecasts used for inventory control of short shelf-life FFPs, where ensuring a high level of freshness and a low level of waste is critical.

TidsskriftJournal of Cleaner Production
StatusUdgivet - 15 mar. 2021

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
This work was supported by Innovation Fund Denmark and participating wholesaler under Grant-ID 5189-00197AB from 2016.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd

Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.


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