Development of a hybrid Bayesian network model for predicting acute fish toxicity using multiple lines of evidence

Jannicke Moe, Anders Læsø Madsen, Kristin A. Connors, Jane M. Rawlings, Scott E. Belanger, Wayne G. Landis, Raoul Wolf, Adam D. Lillicrap

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Abstrakt

A Bayesian network was developed for predicting the acute toxicity intervals of chemical substances to fish, based on information on fish embryo toxicity (FET) in combination with other information. This model can support the use of FET data in a Weight-of-Evidence (WOE) approach for replacing the use of juvenile fish. The BN predicted correct toxicity intervals for 69%-80% of the tested substances. The model was most sensitive to components quantified by toxicity data, and least sensitive to components quantified by expert knowledge. The model is publicly available through a web interface. Further development of this model should include additional lines of evidence, refinement of the discretisation, and training with a larger dataset for weighting of the lines of evidence. A refined version of this model can be a useful tool for predicting acute fish toxicity, and a contribution to more quantitative WOE approaches for ecotoxicology and environmental assessment more generally.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummer104655
TidsskriftEnvironmental Modelling & Software
Vol/bind126
ISSN1364-8152
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 17 feb. 2020

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