Global warming potential and absolute global temperature change potential from carbon dioxide and methane fluxes as indicators of regional sustainability – A case study of Jämtland, Sweden

This study presents a regional model showing the balance of carbon dioxide and methane fluxes in the Swedish county Jämtland, applying a Global Warming Potential 20-year time horizon (GWP20) to meet the Paris agreement horizon and regional policy goals. The results clearly show the necessity to take both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic emissions into consideration in analyses to be able to make proper priorities in future action strategies. The total annual impact from Jämtland calculated as carbon dioxide equivalents (CO_2eq) is an uptake of 2.4 Mton (19 ton per capita). Jämtland shows large annual uptakes in forests (12.7 Mton CO₂), but also large emissions of methane (80 kton corresponding to 6.7 Mton CO_2eq), mainly from lakes, mires and ruminants. Anthropogenic carbon Greenhous gas emissions are dominated by transportation, working machines and consumption (mainly imported indirect emissions). As a complement to GWP also the Absolute Global Temperature Change Potential (AGTP) as degree K response, is presented per sector and total for Jämtland County, for yearly emissions (as a pulse) and continuous emissions over 200 years. A yearly pulse from Jämtland gives a temperature response of about 0 K after 10 years and about −4 μK (cooling effect) after about 50 years). Using both GWP and AGTP as indicators improves the possibilities to find ways how to optimize regional climate policies to reduce global warming until a specific year. Strategies and action plans should be developed focusing on the following: - Reduced regional transportation and consumption activity. - Increased (prioritized) use of renewable fuels for working machines in forestry and agriculture, as well as for heavy trucks. - Evaluate the potential to reduce emissions of methane from wetlands and mires. - Increase/optimize carbon dioxide assimilation in forests.