Exploring the location and use of baseload district heating supply: What can current heat sources tell us about future opportunities?

The decentralization of energy production and recovery of excess heat (EH) to reach climate targets is essential for renewable and fully decarbonized heating systems. This paper identifies current and potential industrial EH sources providing baseload capacity for district heating (DH) systems. These sources are evaluated by sector and process for supplying baseload capacities explored for current 3rd generation district heating (3GDH) and 4th generation district heating (4GDH) systems with lower grid temperatures and losses, with and without expansions. The method combines geographical analysis and available baseload capacity estimations for 360 Danish DH systems scenario-making and an additional sensitivity analysis evaluating baseload capacity full-load hours. It is found that 80 % of Danish DH systems have an unmet baseload capacity of 50 % or higher. Half of the systems have geothermal capacity available and up to 20 % of industrial EH baseload capacity potential, which sums up to 5 PJ of EH potential within a 2 km distance. The findings also suggest that there is an additional opportunity for the placement of future energy infrastructure able to supply EH, which is highly contextual and strategic in heat planning, particularly considering the future development of sustainable and energy-efficient DH systems.