23 Citationer (Scopus)

Resumé

In order to make wind energy more competitive, the big expenses for operation and maintenance must be reduced. Consistent decisions that minimize the expected costs can be made based on risk-based methods. Such methods have been implemented for maintenance planning for oil and gas structures, but for offshore wind turbines, the conditions are different and the methods need to be adjusted accordingly. This paper gives an overview of various approaches to solve the decision problem: methods with decision rules based on observed variables, a method with decision rules based on the probability of failure, a method based on limited memory influence diagrams and a method based on the partially observable Markov decision process. The methods with decision rules based on observed variables are easy to use, but can only take the most recent observation into account, when a decision is made. The other methods can take more information into account, and especially, the method based on the Markov decision process is very flexible and accurate. A case study shows that the Markov decision process and decision rules based on the probability of failure are equally good and give lower costs compared to decision rules based on observed variables.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftEnergies
Vol/bind7
Udgave nummer10
Sider (fra-til)6645-6664
Antal sider20
ISSN1996-1073
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2014

Fingerprint

Wind Turbine
Wind turbines
Planning
Offshore wind turbines
Decision Rules
Wind power
Costs
Data storage equipment
Gases
Markov Decision Process
Maintenance
Influence Diagrams
Partially Observable Markov Decision Process
Wind Energy
Decision problem
Oils
Minimise

Bibliografisk note

Special Issue: Wind Turbines 2014

Emneord

  • Maintenance planning
  • Risk-based
  • Decision tree
  • Bayesian networks
  • Markov decision processes

Citer dette

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title = "Methods for risk-based planning of O&M of wind turbines",
abstract = "In order to make wind energy more competitive, the big expenses for operation and maintenance must be reduced. Consistent decisions that minimize the expected costs can be made based on risk-based methods. Such methods have been implemented for maintenance planning for oil and gas structures, but for offshore wind turbines, the conditions are different and the methods need to be adjusted accordingly. This paper gives an overview of various approaches to solve the decision problem: methods with decision rules based on observed variables, a method with decision rules based on the probability of failure, a method based on limited memory influence diagrams and a method based on the partially observable Markov decision process. The methods with decision rules based on observed variables are easy to use, but can only take the most recent observation into account, when a decision is made. The other methods can take more information into account, and especially, the method based on the Markov decision process is very flexible and accurate. A case study shows that the Markov decision process and decision rules based on the probability of failure are equally good and give lower costs compared to decision rules based on observed variables.",
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Methods for risk-based planning of O&M of wind turbines. / Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard.

I: Energies, Bind 7, Nr. 10, 2014, s. 6645-6664.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

TY - JOUR

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AB - In order to make wind energy more competitive, the big expenses for operation and maintenance must be reduced. Consistent decisions that minimize the expected costs can be made based on risk-based methods. Such methods have been implemented for maintenance planning for oil and gas structures, but for offshore wind turbines, the conditions are different and the methods need to be adjusted accordingly. This paper gives an overview of various approaches to solve the decision problem: methods with decision rules based on observed variables, a method with decision rules based on the probability of failure, a method based on limited memory influence diagrams and a method based on the partially observable Markov decision process. The methods with decision rules based on observed variables are easy to use, but can only take the most recent observation into account, when a decision is made. The other methods can take more information into account, and especially, the method based on the Markov decision process is very flexible and accurate. A case study shows that the Markov decision process and decision rules based on the probability of failure are equally good and give lower costs compared to decision rules based on observed variables.

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KW - Decision tree

KW - Bayesian networks

KW - Markov decision processes

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