Modelling the intensity of surface urban heat island and predicting the emerging patterns: Landsat multi-temporal images and Tehran as case study

The increase of Land Surface Temperature (LST) and the formation of heat island in megacities have become an emerging environmental concern. The main objective of this study is to predict the intensity of Tehran’s heat island in the year 2033 based on historical changes of land cover and LST. For this purpose, Landsat satellite images were integrated with meteorological stations’ measurements from 1985 to 2017. The Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were used to predict the land cover changes and to the modelling of the Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII), Surface Urban Heat Island Ratio Index (SUHRI) was used. Subsequently, using statistical analysis of the effect of historical land cover changes on LST variations, SUHII for 2033 was predicted. Our findings show that within this period, the built-up lands increased significantly from 39% in 1985 to 65% in 2017. The intensity of heat island increased with an increase in the value of SUHII from 0.02 to 0.19. Our predictive analysis reveals that the intensity of the Tehran’s heat island will increase to 0.32 by 2033. Our conclusions draw attentions to the increasing LST now and in the future in Tehran so that urban planners and local authorities take adequate actions for controlling its environmental impacts.