Non-Stationary Modelling and Simulation of Near-Source Earthquake Ground Motion: ARMA and neural network methods

P. S. Skjærbæk, Poul Henning Kirkegaard, G. N. Fouskitakis, S. D. Fassois

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    Abstract

    This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modelling and simulation of this behaviour is of crucial importance in the design of flexible structures and other applications. This paper examines three approaches for the modelling and simulation of non-stationary near-source ground accelerograms: The first one makes use of ARMA models combined with frequency and variance "stabilization". The secondis based upon inherently non-stationary Time-dependent ARMA(TARMA) models, the parameters and variance of which are allowed to be explicit functions of time. The third approach is based on Neural Networks. The three approaches are used for modelling and simulation of an accelerogram characterized by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial valley earthquake in California (USA). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can succesfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results.
    OriginalsprogEngelsk
    UdgivelsesstedAalborg
    ForlagDept. of Building Technology and Structural Engineering, Aalborg University
    StatusUdgivet - 1996
    NavnFracture and Dynamics
    Nummer91
    Vol/bindR9641
    ISSN1395-7953

    Bibliografisk note

    Accepted for presentation at the 15th Int. Conference on Modal Analysis, Orlando, Florida, February 3-6, 1997

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    Emneord

    • Earthquakes
    • New-Source Areas
    • Non-Stationary Signals
    • Stochastic Signals
    • ARMA
    • Tarma

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