Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapport/konference proceedingKonferenceartikel i proceedingForskningpeer review

Resumé

This paper presents how the decisions made in relation to life extension for wind turbines can be formulated as a Bayesian decision problem with decisions on analyses and inspections before the decision on whether to extend the lifetime. The paper presents an implementation where semi-probabilistic analyses are used to verify whether the fatigue life is sufficient for life extension, and where operational data can be exploited to reduce epistemic uncertainties for a more accurate prediction of the fatigue life. The optimal decision policies depends on the expected benefit of life extension, and there is a potential for making general recommendations to support wind turbine owners.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelProceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering : ICASP13
Publikationsdato2019
StatusAccepteret/In press - 2019
Begivenhed13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering - Seoul National University, Seoul, Sydkorea
Varighed: 26 maj 201930 maj 2019
https://www.icasp13.snu.ac.kr/

Konference

Konference13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
LokationSeoul National University
LandSydkorea
BySeoul
Periode26/05/201930/05/2019
Internetadresse

Fingerprint

Wind turbines
Decision making
Fatigue of materials
Inspection
Uncertainty

Citer dette

Nielsen, J. S., Dimitrov, N. K., & Sørensen, J. D. (Accepteret/In press). Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines. I Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering: ICASP13
Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær ; Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov ; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard. / Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines. Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering: ICASP13. 2019.
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title = "Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines",
abstract = "This paper presents how the decisions made in relation to life extension for wind turbines can be formulated as a Bayesian decision problem with decisions on analyses and inspections before the decision on whether to extend the lifetime. The paper presents an implementation where semi-probabilistic analyses are used to verify whether the fatigue life is sufficient for life extension, and where operational data can be exploited to reduce epistemic uncertainties for a more accurate prediction of the fatigue life. The optimal decision policies depends on the expected benefit of life extension, and there is a potential for making general recommendations to support wind turbine owners.",
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Nielsen, JS, Dimitrov, NK & Sørensen, JD 2019, Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines. i Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering: ICASP13., Seoul, Sydkorea, 26/05/2019.

Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines. / Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard.

Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering: ICASP13. 2019.

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapport/konference proceedingKonferenceartikel i proceedingForskningpeer review

TY - GEN

T1 - Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines

AU - Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær

AU - Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

AU - Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - This paper presents how the decisions made in relation to life extension for wind turbines can be formulated as a Bayesian decision problem with decisions on analyses and inspections before the decision on whether to extend the lifetime. The paper presents an implementation where semi-probabilistic analyses are used to verify whether the fatigue life is sufficient for life extension, and where operational data can be exploited to reduce epistemic uncertainties for a more accurate prediction of the fatigue life. The optimal decision policies depends on the expected benefit of life extension, and there is a potential for making general recommendations to support wind turbine owners.

AB - This paper presents how the decisions made in relation to life extension for wind turbines can be formulated as a Bayesian decision problem with decisions on analyses and inspections before the decision on whether to extend the lifetime. The paper presents an implementation where semi-probabilistic analyses are used to verify whether the fatigue life is sufficient for life extension, and where operational data can be exploited to reduce epistemic uncertainties for a more accurate prediction of the fatigue life. The optimal decision policies depends on the expected benefit of life extension, and there is a potential for making general recommendations to support wind turbine owners.

M3 - Article in proceeding

BT - Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering

ER -

Nielsen JS, Dimitrov NK, Sørensen JD. Optimal Decision Making for Life Extension for Wind Turbines. I Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering: ICASP13. 2019