Participatory modeling to enhance understanding and consensus within fisheries management: the Baltic herring case

An important factor influencing fishers’ compliance with fisheries regulation is a feeling of legitimacy of the policy. Legitimacy includes belief that the management is based on reliable advice. This requires a two-way process rather than a one-way flow of information. We involve stakeholders in the development of biological models for Baltic Sea herring fishery and the evaluation of policy advice using these models. The study concentrates in factors behind the negative biomass trend and poor growth rates of the herring stocks. Alternative model structures are built based on current knowledge of the stakeholders. A “meta-model” is built as a synthesis of the different stakeholder models. This is compared to a model provided by biological research and discussed with the stakeholders. Differences between the views are analysed: how well the scientific model covers the views of the stakeholders, and how the inclusion and linking of additional variables help the stakeholders link the different risk components to their own argumentation? Using a model as an interactive forum can enhance common understanding about the fishery system and consensus about management actions. Participatory approach to modelling may reduce criticism about the use of models in natural resource policy advice where the assumptions and uncertainties are difficult to communicate. It may be a way to involve stakeholders in decision-making processes including a demand for increased transparency and understanding.