Resource consumption and GHGe of future new construction: Hotspots for mitigation efforts in Denmark

The construction industry, which accounts for 37 % of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe), is a crucial sector in which efforts must be made to mitigate such emissions. Understanding future resource demand and related GHGe is essential to pinpointing where these efforts must be concentrated. Based on Denmark, this study aims to estimate future resource consumption and GHGe caused by new buildings annually between 2024 and 2050 and to identify hotspots where mitigation efforts should be focused. Combining spatiotemporal predictions of new construction with life cycle assessments (LCA) of 289 buildings' GHGe, it is found that an average of 6.6 million m² of new buildings are expected to be constructed yearly. This results in an annual use of 7 million tons of resources, i.e., building materials, varying between 2.1 and 13.8 million tons, and the emission of 3 million tons of CO₂e, ranging between 1.5 and 5 million tons. Overall, 91 % of future GHGe is related to embodied emissions. Moreover, of all the new construction considered in the study, residential and office buildings will be responsible for 78.4 % of annual resources and 76.5 % of GHGe between 2024 and 2050. Identified hotspots reveal that mitigation efforts must focus on building-envelope elements for all building typologies, such as roofs, walls, and slabs. Also, three main types of material – mineral products, steel, and insulation materials – contribute significantly to GHGe, indicating the necessity of focusing mitigation on these products in the future.