Response Load Extrapolation for Wind Turbines during Operation Based on Average Conditional Exceedance Rates

The paper explores a recently developed method for statistical response load (load effect) extrapolation for application to extreme response of wind turbines during operation. The extrapolation method is based on average conditional exceedance rates and is in the present implementation restricted to cases where the Gumbel distribution is the appropriate asymptotic extreme value distribution. However, two extra parameters are introduced by which a more general and flexible class of extreme value distributions is obtained with the Gumbel distribution as a subclass. The general method is implemented within a hierarchical model where the variables that influence the loading are divided into ergodic variables and time-invariant non-ergodic variables. The presented method for statistical response load extrapolation was compared with the existing methods based on peak extrapolation for the blade out-of-plane bending moment and the tower mudline bending moment of a pitch-controlled wind turbine. In general, the results show that the method based on average conditional exceedance rates predicts the extrapolated characteristic response loads at the individual mean wind speeds well and results in more consistent estimates than the methods based on peak extrapolation.