Satellite Data, Women Defectors and Black Markets in North Korea: A Quantitative Study of the North Korean Informal Sector Using Night-Time Lights Satellite Imagery

Purpose - This paper investigates the origins of the high numbers of female North Korean defectors arriving in South Korea in the first decade of the 21st century.

Design / Methodology/ Approach - This paper uses night-time lights satellite imagery to measure the luminosity emitted by North Koreans markets, which serves as a proxy for market activity, and investigates the correlation of this market activity with the number of female North Korean defectors arriving in South Korea. The hypothesis is that increased market activity, including cross border trade with China, will result in more North Koreans crossing the border into China, and eventually more North Koreans reaching South Korea.

Findings - The findings of this paper are that there is a statistical significant correlation of the number of women that arrive in South Korea and the night-time lights emitted by a black market in Sinuiju, at the Chinese border. Since luminosity of markets can be assumed as a proxy for market activity, the conclusion can be made that the reason for the high number of North Korean women arriving in South Korea is related to their higher mobility due to their leading role on the North Korean markets.

Practical Implications - the evinced correlation of North Korean market activity along the Chinese border and the number of arrivals of North Koreans, and especially North Korean women, in South Korea may serve as a primer for further research that either uses the same methodology, i.e. satellite images, or other variables, such as the development of market prices etc., to account for developments in the North Korean informal sector.

Originality Value - The paper is able to investigate and measure North Korean market activity free of the usual collection bias of studies on North Korea, since the independent variable is proxied with data collected by satellites, and the dependent variable is accounted for by the South Korean Government’s Ministry of Unification.