State-space adjustment of radar rainfall and stochastic flow forecasting for use in real-time control of urban drainage systems

Roland Löwe, Peter Steen Mikkelsen, Michael R. Rasmussen, Henrik Madsen

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapport/konference proceedingKonferenceartikel i proceedingForskningpeer review

Abstrakt

Merging of radar rainfall data with rain gauge measurements is a common approach to overcome problems in deriving rain intensities from radar measurements. We extend an existing approach for adjustment of C-band radar data using state-space models and use the resulting rainfall intensities as input for forecasting outflow from two catchments in the Copenhagen area. Stochastic greybox models are applied to create the runoff forecasts, providing us with not only a point forecast but also a quantification of the forecast uncertainty. Evaluating the results, we can show that using the adjusted radar data improves runoff forecasts compared to using the original radar data and that rain gauge measurements as forecast input are also outperformed. Combining the data merging approach with short term rainfall forecasting algorithms may result in further improved runoff forecasts that can be used in real time control.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelUrban Drainage Modelling : Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
RedaktørerDušan Prodanović , Jasna Plavšić
Antal sider9
ForlagFaculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade
Publikationsdato2013
ISBN (Elektronisk)978-86-7518-156-9
StatusUdgivet - 2013
BegivenhedUrban Drainage Modelling - Belgrade, Serbien
Varighed: 4 sep. 20126 sep. 2012
Konferencens nummer: 9

Konference

KonferenceUrban Drainage Modelling
Nummer9
LandSerbien
ByBelgrade
Periode04/09/201206/09/2012

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Emneord

  • Flow Forecast
  • Greybox Model
  • Radar Rainfall
  • State Space Model

Citationsformater

Löwe, R., Mikkelsen, P. S., Rasmussen, M. R., & Madsen, H. (2013). State-space adjustment of radar rainfall and stochastic flow forecasting for use in real-time control of urban drainage systems. I D. Prodanović , & J. Plavšić (red.), Urban Drainage Modelling: Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade.