Stochastic Long Term Modelling of a Drainage System with Estimation of Return Period Uncertainty

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Abstrakt

Long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer overflow (CSO) in drainage systems are associated with large uncertainties. Especially on rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo based methodology for stochastic prediction of both maximum water levels as well as CSO volumes based on operations of the urban drainage model MOUSE (Lindberg and Joergensen 1986) in a single catchment case study. Results show quite a wide confidence interval of the model predictions especially on the large return periods. Traditionally, return periods of drainage system predictions are based on ranking, but this paper proposes a new methodology for the assessment of return periods. Based on statistics of characteristic rainfall parameters and correlation with drainage system predictions, it is possible to predict return periods more reliably, and with smaller confidence bands compared to the traditional methodology.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelConfernce Proceedings : 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage : Edinburgh International Conference Centre, Scotland : 11 ICUD: 31st August - 5th September 2008
Antal sider10
Publikationsdato2008
StatusUdgivet - 2008
BegivenhedThe International Conference on Urban Drainage - Edinburgh, Storbritannien
Varighed: 31 aug. 20085 sep. 2008
Konferencens nummer: 11

Konference

KonferenceThe International Conference on Urban Drainage
Nummer11
LandStorbritannien
ByEdinburgh
Periode31/08/200805/09/2008

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Thorndahl, S. (2008). Stochastic Long Term Modelling of a Drainage System with Estimation of Return Period Uncertainty. I Confernce Proceedings : 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage: Edinburgh International Conference Centre, Scotland : 11 ICUD: 31st August - 5th September 2008