Temporal and Spatial Aspects of Probabilistic Corrosion Models

The paper initially reviews sources of structural deterioration, with emphasis on chloride-induced corrosion of reinforced concrete structures. Thereafter, a critical review of deterioration models for corrosion initiation and propagation and their effect on structural performance is given. It is observed that many probabilistic deterioration models exist and that they can produce somewhat divergent predictions of corrosion initiation and propagation. The paper also examines the high temporal and spatial uncertainty and variability of existing deterioration models and the impact this might have on decision-making criteria. Finally a discussion is given in regard to how to proceed in future research and development with the aim of establishing a consistent and operational model basis for the design, assessment, inspection and maintenance of concrete structures.