Understanding and Including the Dynamics of Extreme Natural Hazard Event Uncertainty Within the Overall Offshore Wind Farm Project Risk Assessment Using a Causality-Based Graphical Modelling Approach

Rafael Zamora, Jianjun Qin, Anders Schmidt Kristensen, Saqib Mehmood, Shakeel Ahmed, S. Cuthbert

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Resumé

Offshore wind structures are subject to the combined action of wind and wave loads. A change of these loads may significantly affect the integrity of the structural elements. Increased instabilities in the Earth’s climate system could increase the frequency of extreme events (e.g. rogue waves) well beyond the frequency values currently recommended within structural design standards. Inherent to extreme event modelling is the need to use expert (subjective) judgement and sparse data sets. In this context, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) can be applied to describe the effect of these changes on the frequency of rogue waves within wind farms located in shallow water depths of 20–60 meters. This graphical modelling approach provides the structure to effectively communicate, among others, parameter uncertainty, causality across multiple risk factors, quantitative definition of assessment subjectivity or potential impact of a change in rogue wave frequency relative to that described in current design standards.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelSafety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World : Proceedings of ESREL 2018, June 17-21, 2018, Trondheim, norway
RedaktørerStein Haugen, Anne Barros, Coen van Gulijk, Trond Kongsvik, Jan Erik Vinnem
Udgivelses stedLondon
ForlagCRC Press
Publikationsdatojun. 2018
Udgave1.
Sider1517-1525
ISBN (Trykt)978-0-8153-8682-7
ISBN (Elektronisk)78-1-351-17466-4
StatusUdgivet - jun. 2018
BegivenhedEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference 2018: ESREL 2018 - Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU, Trondheim, Norge
Varighed: 17 jun. 201821 jun. 2018

Konference

KonferenceEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference 2018
LokationNorwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU
LandNorge
ByTrondheim
Periode17/06/201821/06/2018

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wind farm
natural hazard
risk assessment
extreme event
modeling
risk factor
water depth
shallow water
project
climate

Citer dette

Zamora, R., Qin, J., Kristensen, A. S., Mehmood, S., Ahmed, S., & Cuthbert, S. (2018). Understanding and Including the Dynamics of Extreme Natural Hazard Event Uncertainty Within the Overall Offshore Wind Farm Project Risk Assessment Using a Causality-Based Graphical Modelling Approach. I S. Haugen, A. Barros, C. V. Gulijk, T. Kongsvik, & J. E. Vinnem (red.), Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World: Proceedings of ESREL 2018, June 17-21, 2018, Trondheim, norway (1. udg., s. 1517-1525). London: CRC Press.
Zamora, Rafael ; Qin, Jianjun ; Kristensen, Anders Schmidt ; Mehmood, Saqib ; Ahmed, Shakeel ; Cuthbert, S. . / Understanding and Including the Dynamics of Extreme Natural Hazard Event Uncertainty Within the Overall Offshore Wind Farm Project Risk Assessment Using a Causality-Based Graphical Modelling Approach. Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World: Proceedings of ESREL 2018, June 17-21, 2018, Trondheim, norway. red. / Stein Haugen ; Anne Barros ; Coen van Gulijk ; Trond Kongsvik ; Jan Erik Vinnem. 1. udg. London : CRC Press, 2018. s. 1517-1525
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abstract = "Offshore wind structures are subject to the combined action of wind and wave loads. A change of these loads may significantly affect the integrity of the structural elements. Increased instabilities in the Earth’s climate system could increase the frequency of extreme events (e.g. rogue waves) well beyond the frequency values currently recommended within structural design standards. Inherent to extreme event modelling is the need to use expert (subjective) judgement and sparse data sets. In this context, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) can be applied to describe the effect of these changes on the frequency of rogue waves within wind farms located in shallow water depths of 20–60 meters. This graphical modelling approach provides the structure to effectively communicate, among others, parameter uncertainty, causality across multiple risk factors, quantitative definition of assessment subjectivity or potential impact of a change in rogue wave frequency relative to that described in current design standards.",
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Zamora, R, Qin, J, Kristensen, AS, Mehmood, S, Ahmed, S & Cuthbert, S 2018, Understanding and Including the Dynamics of Extreme Natural Hazard Event Uncertainty Within the Overall Offshore Wind Farm Project Risk Assessment Using a Causality-Based Graphical Modelling Approach. i S Haugen, A Barros, CV Gulijk, T Kongsvik & JE Vinnem (red), Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World: Proceedings of ESREL 2018, June 17-21, 2018, Trondheim, norway. 1. udg, CRC Press, London, s. 1517-1525, Trondheim, Norge, 17/06/2018.

Understanding and Including the Dynamics of Extreme Natural Hazard Event Uncertainty Within the Overall Offshore Wind Farm Project Risk Assessment Using a Causality-Based Graphical Modelling Approach. / Zamora, Rafael; Qin, Jianjun; Kristensen, Anders Schmidt; Mehmood, Saqib; Ahmed, Shakeel; Cuthbert, S. .

Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World: Proceedings of ESREL 2018, June 17-21, 2018, Trondheim, norway. red. / Stein Haugen; Anne Barros; Coen van Gulijk; Trond Kongsvik; Jan Erik Vinnem. 1. udg. London : CRC Press, 2018. s. 1517-1525.

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapport/konference proceedingKonferenceartikel i proceedingForskningpeer review

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T1 - Understanding and Including the Dynamics of Extreme Natural Hazard Event Uncertainty Within the Overall Offshore Wind Farm Project Risk Assessment Using a Causality-Based Graphical Modelling Approach

AU - Zamora, Rafael

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AU - Mehmood, Saqib

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N2 - Offshore wind structures are subject to the combined action of wind and wave loads. A change of these loads may significantly affect the integrity of the structural elements. Increased instabilities in the Earth’s climate system could increase the frequency of extreme events (e.g. rogue waves) well beyond the frequency values currently recommended within structural design standards. Inherent to extreme event modelling is the need to use expert (subjective) judgement and sparse data sets. In this context, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) can be applied to describe the effect of these changes on the frequency of rogue waves within wind farms located in shallow water depths of 20–60 meters. This graphical modelling approach provides the structure to effectively communicate, among others, parameter uncertainty, causality across multiple risk factors, quantitative definition of assessment subjectivity or potential impact of a change in rogue wave frequency relative to that described in current design standards.

AB - Offshore wind structures are subject to the combined action of wind and wave loads. A change of these loads may significantly affect the integrity of the structural elements. Increased instabilities in the Earth’s climate system could increase the frequency of extreme events (e.g. rogue waves) well beyond the frequency values currently recommended within structural design standards. Inherent to extreme event modelling is the need to use expert (subjective) judgement and sparse data sets. In this context, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) can be applied to describe the effect of these changes on the frequency of rogue waves within wind farms located in shallow water depths of 20–60 meters. This graphical modelling approach provides the structure to effectively communicate, among others, parameter uncertainty, causality across multiple risk factors, quantitative definition of assessment subjectivity or potential impact of a change in rogue wave frequency relative to that described in current design standards.

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BT - Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World

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PB - CRC Press

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Zamora R, Qin J, Kristensen AS, Mehmood S, Ahmed S, Cuthbert S. Understanding and Including the Dynamics of Extreme Natural Hazard Event Uncertainty Within the Overall Offshore Wind Farm Project Risk Assessment Using a Causality-Based Graphical Modelling Approach. I Haugen S, Barros A, Gulijk CV, Kongsvik T, Vinnem JE, red., Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World: Proceedings of ESREL 2018, June 17-21, 2018, Trondheim, norway. 1. udg. London: CRC Press. 2018. s. 1517-1525