Uncertainty in Impact Assessment – EIA in Denmark

Uncertainty may be viewed as an inescapable part of the exercise of ex ante assessment of impacts of plans, programmes or projects – we do per definition not know the exact impacts before they unfold. Also, there is an increasing focus on integration of impacts such as climate change in impact assessment; impacts that are characterised by uncertainty, and for which uncertainties in general are much discussed. There have been scattered calls from authors suggesting that there is not enough focus on uncertainty in assessment reports. This lack of transparency about the uncertainties is viewed as problematic, as this is important information for decision makers and public actors. Taking point of departure in these issues, this paper seeks to add to the discussions by presenting the results of a study on the handling of uncertainty in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) reports in Denmark. The study is based on analysis of 100 EIA reports. The results will shed light on the extent to which uncertainties is addressed in EIA in Denmark and discuss how the practice can be categorised.