Using reference trajectories to predicted uncertain systems: exemplified on a power plant

Peter Fogh Odgaard, Jakob Stoustrup, B. Mataji

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapport/konference proceedingKonferenceartikel i proceedingForskningpeer review

Abstract

This paper presents a method for prediction of uncertain closed loop systems, where the uncertainties are depending on operating points. Such model uncertainties are often present when complicated non-linear systems are predicted. The method uses precomputed mean and variances of the prediction error depending on the operation point given by references and disturbances. These uncertainty models are stored in a model bank, linear interpolation is applied to the elements of the model bank in order to predict uncertainty bounds on the predictions using the statistics of the past prediction uncertainties. It is as well proposed to update the uncertainty prediction models on-line. The potential of the method is illustrated by an example from a coal-fired power plant. This example shows prediction of the uncertainties as a bounded region in which the given system variable can be assumed to be contained in. In the example these successfully bound the system variables while in comparison applying a simple prediction diverges from the system.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelAmerican Control Conference, 2007. ACC '07
Antal sider12
ForlagElectrical Engineering/Electronics, Computer, Communications and Information Technology Association
Publikationsdato2007
Sider6055-6066
ISBN (Trykt)1-4244-0989-6
StatusUdgivet - 2007
BegivenhedAmerican Control Conference 2007, ACC'07 - New York, USA
Varighed: 9 jul. 200713 jul. 2007

Konference

KonferenceAmerican Control Conference 2007, ACC'07
Land/OmrådeUSA
ByNew York
Periode09/07/200713/07/2007

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