Estimation, simulation and regulation for optimal interventions against COVID-19

The project will develop a tool for decision support for the Danish authorities. The aim is to limit the prevalence of the COVID-19 infection in such a way that the epidemic is as short-lived as possible, without exceeding critical capacity in the health system, e.g. beds in intensive care units, respirators, etc. This is done by applying mathematical modeling, simulation, control and optimization to a number of possible interventions and measures that can be established by the authorities, e.g. limitation of assemblies, closure of institutions, isolation of potentially infected, isolation of vulnerable citizens. The models will be continuously calibrated and can thus utilize information in data as soon as they are available from hospitals, etc. The tool will be used by the authorities to select the exact combination of interventions and their duration in order to give the mildest effects to society. The tool also describes how a gradual and controlled reopening of society is established. The project is being implemented in a collaboration between the Technical University of Denmark and the University of Aalborg.