Integration of Large Scale Heat Pumps in the Energy System

Abstract:
Electrification of the heating sector and the integration of large-scale electric heat pumps is a significant element in the transition into a more sustainable heat supply. Concurrently with the expansion of renewable energy sources, the production of electricity becomes more volatile, and the need for sector coupling increases. For the district heating supply companies, there is additionally a potential economic profit to gain from sector coupling. Currently, the interaction between the heating and the electricity sector, obtainable through investment in large-scale heat pumps, receives limited attention late in the process - typically not until the plants have been built. Consequently, the aim of this research is to develop methods/tools that realise the full potential for sector coupling, by being able to value and include the interaction in connection with preparation of capacity development plans, during project maturing and, in the tender-phase. The transition towards increased electrification, the accelerating climate ambitions, and the development of energy technologies induce an increased uncertainty in future energy markets and regulatory conditions. Altogether it produces a vast solution space, in which it can be difficult to navigate. For this purpose, a multi-objective optimisation-approach, that systematically considers the life-cycle-cost of the heat pump concept, as well as the robustness towards uncertainties and the potential to provide ancillary services, will be developed. In total, this poses a complex non-linear optimization problem, which includes the development of high fidelity dynamic heat pump models as well as long-term economic models.
Funding: Innovation Fund Denmark