Uncertainty Assessment in Long Term Urban Drainage Modelling

Project Details


The use of numerical urban drainage models for analysis and design of drainage and storm water systems have increased significantly the last decades, and is applied more and more frequent by consulting engineers, municipalities, etc. The models produce a detailed output of the drainage system during rain, e.g. exceeding of critical water levels (surcharge and flooding) and combined sewer overflow volumes. The use of the models is however to a great extent based on tradition, experience, and empirical assumptions with regards to choice of models, model parameters, and model inputs. Due to ignorance and in order to ensure that design criteria are kept, a great safety is often applied in the choice of model parameters, which in some cases will lead to overdimensioned drainage systems. On the other hand, if the necessary safety is not implemented in the choice of parameters, a risk of under-dimensioned systems might occur.

Based on the above, there are both social and engineering reasons to explore the uncertainties in applications of urban drainage models further, both regarding uncertainties regarding in model inputs, model parameters and conceptual model uncertainties. By identifying the main uncertainties and by handling them stochastically it is possible, using analytical reliability methods or Monte Carlo based methods, to transform the uncertainty of the input and the parameters to an uncertainty estimate of the output.

The main focus of the PhD is to investigate the uncertainties in the long term modelling of urban runoff such that uncertainty estimated or confidence intervals can be assigned the return periods of e.g. flooding or combined sewer overflow.

Effective start/end date15/11/200414/04/2008


  • <ingen navn>


  • 2008 DCE Ph.d projects
  • Urban Drainage
  • Sewer Systems
  • Rain Gauges
  • MOUSE Model
  • Hydrological
  • Rainfall


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