Pro-Risk: mathematical methods for Probabilistic Risk modeling of green electric power systems

The green transition to a CO2-neutral society only becomes more important in view of several of the global crises we have experienced. As part of that transition, Denmark has planned two large energy islands where a 100% green electricity grid will be built and gas will be produced from renewable energy sources for power-to-X. Although these strategic action plans meet sustainability goals, they are highly weather-dependent due to the energy sources, and this significantly increases the risks in the energy system. New green technologies introduce three major challenges within system risks, including irregular production, unknown failure characteristics, and increased complexity due to the large amount of renewable energy production. It is the first time in history that 100% green systems are being built and we do not know precisely the risk or how it should be handled. The Pro-Risk project aims to introduce a new gray-box method for green energy systems which allows model-based design and operational optimization of the green energy systems.