A Framework for Offshore Load Environment Modeling

Sebastian Tølbøll Glavind*, Michael Havbro Faber

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalConference article in JournalResearchpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


This paper presents a novel decision analytical framework for systems modeling in the context of the risk-informed integrity management of offshore facilities. Our focus concerns the development of system models representing environmental loads associated with storm events. Appreciating that system models in general serve to facilitate the optimal ranking of decision alternatives, we formulate the problem of systems modeling as an optimization problem to be solved jointly with the ranking of integrity management decision alternatives. Taking offset in recent developments in structure learning and Bayesian regression techniques, a generic approach for the modeling of environmental loads is established, which accommodates for a joint utilization of phenomenological understanding and knowledge contained in databases of observations. In this manner, we provide a framework and corresponding techniques supporting the combination of bottom-up and top-down modeling. Moreover, since phenomenological understanding and analysis of databases may lead to the identification of several competing system models, we include these in the formulation of the optimization problem. The proposed framework and utilized techniques are illustrated in an example. The example considers systems modeling and decision optimization in the context of a possible evacuation of an offshore facility in the face of an emerging storm event.
Original languageEnglish
Article numberOMAE-19-1059
JournalJournal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering
Issue number2
Pages (from-to)021702
Publication statusPublished - 2020
Event37th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering - Madrid, Spain
Duration: 17 Jun 201822 Jun 2018
Conference number: 37


Conference37th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
Internet address


  • Ocean waves and associated statistics
  • Structural safety and risk analysis
  • System integrity assessment


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