A resilience evaluation method of natural gas pipeline system based on uncertainty analysis

The natural gas pipeline system (NGPS) is a complex network of units that is susceptible to potential random failures. Moreover, the environment in which the NGPS operates is characterized by complexity and uncertainty, including market volatility, natural disasters, and deliberate sabotage. While research on the NGPS has mainly focused on supply reliability through methods such as statistical analysis and random simulation, there is a lack of emphasis on the system's supply resilience, which encompasses its robustness and recovery abilities. To address the resilience of the NGPS under uncertainty, this study proposes a probabilistic analysis model that evaluates supply resilience based on failure mechanisms and reasonable data. The model takes into account the integrated evaluation indexes framework and analyzes the process of failure and recovery, using MCMC random process analysis and complex networks theory. The results indicate that both gas transportation capacity and user satisfaction should be considered in the evaluation and strategy analysis of NGPS resilience. Furthermore, the study of resilience can provide guidance for NGPS operation, pre-warning during the design and operational stages.