Association Between Change in Metabolic Syndrome Status and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

Backgroud There is a paucity of information on whether changes in metabolic syndrome (MetS) status affect the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to evaluate whether changes in MetS status and components of MetS affect AF risk using data from a nationwide observational cohort. Methods and Results A total of 7 565 531 adults without prevalent AF (mean age, 47±14 years) who underwent 2 serial health examinations by the Korean National Health Insurance Cooperation were identified. The patients were categorized into 4 groups according to the change in MetS status in serial evaluations, as follows: patients with persistent MetS (n=1 388 850), healthy patients newly diagnosed with MetS in the second evaluation (n=608 158), patients with MetS who were healthy in the second evaluation (n=798 555), and persistently healthy individuals (n=4 769 968). During a mean 7.9-year follow-up, incident AF was diagnosed in 139 305 (1.8%) patients. After multivariable adjustment, the AF risk was higher by 31% in the patients with persistent MetS , 26% in the patients with MetS who were healthy in the second evaluation, and 16% in the healthy patients newly diagnosed with MetS in the second evaluation compared with the persistently healthy individuals. Regardless of the MetS component type, the AF risk correlated with changes in the number of components. The risk of AF was strongly correlated with MetS status changes in the young and middle-age groups (20-39 years and 40-64 years, respectively) than in the elderly group (≥65 years). Conclusions Dynamic changes in MetS status and persistent MetS were associated with an increased risk of AF in a large-scale Asian population.