Based on phase and level errors translating and interpolating correction to improve the accuracy of wind power forecasting

Wei Hu Ya, Zhe Chen, Qin Chao, Jiang Li, Bo Wang Yi

Research output: Contribution to book/anthology/report/conference proceedingArticle in proceedingResearchpeer-review

Abstract

At present, the accuracy of short-term wind power forecasting is low, level errors are commonly used to evaluate index, while few statistics about phase errors(delayed or ahead of time)are studied. In this paper, a method based on translating and interpolating correction of phase and level errors was put forward to improve forecasting accuracy, and proposed the conception of phase error constant trend duration, and classified the day-ahead wind power forecasting curve and the actual curve into three modes: the constant trend of power increasing, decreasing and unchanging, the calculation model of constant trend duration was established, that based on probabilistic and statistical methods to obtain deviated value and lagged or lead direction between the forecasting and the actual time value. Using the translated and interpolated method, combining phase and level error to correct the day-ahead power forecasting error. The simulated result showed : the wind power forecasting phase error was 3.78h, and the direction was delay, and level absolute error was 40.05MW, what the phase error value that after the translated and interpolated correction was 2.56h, the error of which was reduced by 32.34%, level absolute error was 32.58MW, reduced by 18.65%, which effectively improved the accuracy of short-term wind power forecasting.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of 2015 IEEE Advanced Information Technology, Electronic and Automation Control Conference, IAEAC 2015
Number of pages7
PublisherIEEE
Publication date2015
Pages552-558
Article number7428614
ISBN (Electronic)9781479919796
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015
EventIEEE Advanced Information Technology, Electronic and Automation Control Conference, IAEAC 2015 - Chongqing, China
Duration: 19 Dec 201520 Dec 2015

Conference

ConferenceIEEE Advanced Information Technology, Electronic and Automation Control Conference, IAEAC 2015
Country/TerritoryChina
CityChongqing
Period19/12/201520/12/2015
SponsorGlobal Union Academy of Science and Technology, Global Union Academy of Science and Technology, IEEE Beijing Section

Keywords

  • Level Error
  • Phase Error
  • Probability And Statistics
  • Translating And Interpolating Correction
  • Wind Power Forecasting

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