Circulating tumor DNA analysis for assessment of recurrence risk, benefit of adjuvant therapy, and early relapse detection after treatment in colorectal cancer patients.

Background: Timely detection of recurrence, as well as identification of patients at high risk of recurrence after surgery and after completion of adjuvant therapy, are major challenges in the treatment of colorectal cancer (CRC). Postsurgical circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis is a promising tool for the identification of patients with minimal residual disease (MRD) and a high risk of recurrence. The objective of this prospective, multicenter study was to determine whether serial postsurgical ctDNA analysis could identify the patients at high risk of recurrence, provide an assessment of adjuvant therapy efficacy and detect relapse earlier than standard-of-care radiological imaging. Methods: The cohort comprises 265 stage I-III CRC patients, the to-date largest cohort assessed for ctDNA. All patients had the tumor resected and a subset of 62.6% (166 /265) was additionally treated with ACT. Plasma samples (n = 1503) were collected at various time points for a median follow-up of 28.4 months (range: 1.2-51.0 months). Individual tumors and matched germline DNA were whole-exome sequenced and somatic single nucleotide variants (SNVs) were identified. Personalized multiplex PCR assays were designed to track tumor-specific SNVs (Signatera, bespoke mPCR NGS assay) in each patient?s plasma sample. Results: Postoperative ctDNA status prior to ACT was assessed in 218 patients, of which 9.17% (20/218) were identified to be MRD-positive and 75% (15/20) eventually relapsed. The remaining 25% (5/20) of MRD-positive patients that did not relapse, received ACT. In contrast, only 13.6% (27/198) of MRD-negative cases relapsed (HR: 11: 95% CI: 5.7-20; p < 0.001). Longitudinal ctDNA-positive status, post-definitive therapy (n = 202) was associated with a HR of 36 (95% CI: 16-81; p < 0.001). For a subset of 155 patients postoperative CEA and ctDNA measurements were compared, wherein, ctDNA-positive status was found to be significantly associated with RFS (HR, 7.1; 95% CI, 3.4-15; P < 0.001) compared to CEA (HR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.46-3.1; P = 0.73). Serial ctDNA analysis detected MRD up to a median of 8 months (0.56 - 21.6 months) ahead of radiologic relapse. Conclusion: Postoperative ctDNA positive status was associated with markedly reduced RFS compared to CEA. The study also shows that effective therapy can be curative in a portion of MRD-positive patients. In a longitudinal setting, ctDNA analysis predicted the risk of recurrence and is a more reliable biomarker for treatment response monitoring.