Abstract
The complexity and advanced nature of modern biotechnology, and its extensive implications for society regarding prosperity, risk and ethics, make a view of the future that is comprehensible and transparent to society desirable. The objective of this feasibility study was to investigate methodologies for strategic planning and regulatory decision-making in technologies involving genetically modified (GM) crops. The planning and regulatory decisions of both the biotechnology industry and public authorities are considered. In the study, knowledge and opinion about a well-defined problem complex are systematically brought together in the consultation of a larger number of stakeholders and experts representing as many major perspectives as possible. On the basis of a test case on the development of a GM-ryegrass, this paper suggests a methodological approach to the uncertainties faced by the biotech industry and public authorities when GM crops are commercialized. The method used was a technology foresight (TF) framework, using a life cycle inventory (LCI) to define the problem complex, a stakeholder panel to identify drivers (of change) that influence the direction of future developments, and weighted stakeholder questionnaires to prioritize these drivers. Once quantified, the weighted stakeholder opinion generated a clear criterion for prioritizing drivers that were judged to be important in the future development of a GM-ryegrass but whose precise impact was uncertain. The four drivers prioritized were: being the first to market the GM-ryegrass, an efficient network on biomolecular know-how, public dialogue and participation in regulation procedures and utility value.
Original language | English |
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Journal | Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
Volume | 69 |
Issue number | 8 |
Pages (from-to) | 765-780 |
Number of pages | 16 |
ISSN | 0040-1625 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Nov 2002 |
Keywords
- Biotechnology stakeholder panel
- Controversial technology
- Regulatory decision-making
- Strategic planning
- Technological foresight