Comparative assessment of future hydrogen demand potentials in a decarbonised European energy system

Hydrogen is poised to play a vital role in Europe's transition to a low-carbon economy while enhancing energy security by reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels. However, future hydrogen demand remains highly uncertain, shaped by sectoral priorities, technology choices, cost dynamics, and policy direction. This study undertakes a comparative assessment of hydrogen demand projections across 20 studies—including academic, governmental, and private sector sources—focused on decarbonizing Europe's energy system by 2050. Both electrolytic and non-electrolytic hydrogen pathways are quantified, with demand estimates varying widely from a median of 50 Mt to a maximum of 108 Mt by 2050. Findings consistently highlight hydrogen's essential role in hard-to-abate sectors in transport and industrial applications, with a growing emphasis on hydrogen-derived fuels like ammonia and methanol. These insights are crucial for informing infrastructure planning and guiding strategic investments to support Europe's long-term climate and energy objectives.