E-Methanol Production and Potential Export in the Northern Denmark Region for 2030 and 2045

Denmark has set a target of 4–6 GW electrolysis capacity by 2030, of which a part of the produced hydrogen is to be used for export, while the rest could be transformed further into electrofuels. The North Denmark Region has favourable conditions for the production of carbon-based fuels. The region has high availability of CO2 sources and a strategic position for establishing CO2 hubs in the local harbours that could support biogenic CO2 availability in the future. This paper investigates the potential of the region for exporting e-methanol through 22 energy system scenarios and the impacts on the energy system if this is to be realised by 2030 and 2045, when Denmark is expected to achieve its national climate goals. The analysis highlights the significant potential of this region to contribute to e-methanol production not only to meet the regional demand for methanol for marine transport and aviation but also for export to the rest of Denmark or beyond Danish borders.