Empirical testing of forecast update procedure forseasonal products

Chee Yew Wong, John Johansen

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    Updating of forecasts is essential for successful collaborative forecasting, especially for seasonal products. This paper discusses the results of a theoretical simulation and an empirical test of a proposed time-series forecast updating procedure. It involves a two-stage longitudinal case study of a toy supply chain. The theoretical simulation involves historical weekly consumer demand data for 122 toy products. The empirical test is then carried out in real-time with 291 toy products. The results show that the proposed forecast updating procedure: 1) reduced forecast errors of the annual consumer demand, 2) determined timing for the commitment to subsequent replenishment during the selling seasons within acceptable forecast uncertainty, and 3) facilitated collaborative forecasting with more accurate forecast updates. However, during the empirical test, the forecast updating procedure provided less forecast accuracy improvement and it needed a longer time to achieve relatively acceptable forecast uncertainty.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalInternational Journal of Information Technology and Management
    Volume7
    Issue number1
    Pages (from-to)60-75
    ISSN1461-4111
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2008

    Keywords

    • forecast
    • information sharing
    • supply chain coordination
    • seasonal
    • toy industry

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'Empirical testing of forecast update procedure forseasonal products'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this