Energy transition in petroleum rich nations: Case study of Iran

Energy modeling and planning problems associated with technical, economic, political, and social development have been critical concerns in energy system planning and greenhouse gas emission control for both national and worldwide for many years. This paper modeled and analyzed the current and future energy supply and demand for an oil-rich energy system because energy intensity is very high in such countries. A high shared fossil fuels energy system is modeled, and an appropriate energy mix is proposed to meet the national commitment in Paris Agreement. The EnergyPLAN is used to model the energy system. Hourly actual energy demand and supply are provided for 2004–2016 for all energy sectors and subsectors and anticipated 2030. Five different scenarios are analyzed, and results show that the power sector is more influential than other energy demand sectors. Efficiency improvement of the thermal power plans and the integration of renewable energy resources into the power sector are more useful for reducing Total Primary Energy Consumption, CO2, and variable cost than other scenarios. In the proper scenario, a 1% improvement in the thermal power plants efficiency and 22% annual average growth rate in renewable energy capacity, 4% CO2 reduction can be achieved. It is concluded that in oil-rich counties such as Iran, the energy system efficiency improvement, particularly in electricity production, is more useful for the overall CO2 reduction goals. Efforts for total CO2 reduction benefit the national energy system economy, and the international community will benefit from a more efficient energy system. We believe that by total primary energy supply reduction in oil-rich countries, the international market's energy supply will be increased, which further reduces the pressure on the global oil and gas prices.