Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector

Tomislav Pukšec*, Goran Krajačić, Zoran Lulić, Brian Vad Mathiesen, Neven Duić

*Corresponding author

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

26 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The transport sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today, with a share of almost one third of the country's final energy demand. Considering this fact, it is very challenging to assess future trends influencing that demand. In this paper, long-term energy demand predictions for the Croatian transport sector are presented. Special emphasis is given to different influencing mechanisms, both legal and financial. The energy demand predictions presented in this paper are based on an end-use simulation model developed and tested with Croatia as a case study. The model incorporates the detailed modal structure of the Croatian transport sector, including road, rail, air, public and water transport modes. Four long-term energy demand scenarios were analysed till the year 2050; frozen efficiency, implementation of EU legislation, electrification and modal split. Based on that analysis, significant savings can be achieved through energy efficiency improvements, electrification of personal vehicles fleet as well as gradual modal split. Comparing the frozen efficiency scenario and electrification scenario for the year 2050, it can be concluded that energy consumption, with the heavy electrification of personal vehicles fleet, can be cut by half.
Original languageEnglish
JournalEnergy
Volume57
Pages (from-to)169-176
Number of pages8
ISSN0360-5442
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2013

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Energy efficiency
Rails
Energy utilization
Air
Water

Keywords

  • Bottom-up modelling
  • Electrification
  • Energy demand
  • Modal split
  • Transport sector

Cite this

Pukšec, Tomislav ; Krajačić, Goran ; Lulić, Zoran ; Mathiesen, Brian Vad ; Duić, Neven. / Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector. In: Energy. 2013 ; Vol. 57. pp. 169-176.
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title = "Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector",
abstract = "The transport sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today, with a share of almost one third of the country's final energy demand. Considering this fact, it is very challenging to assess future trends influencing that demand. In this paper, long-term energy demand predictions for the Croatian transport sector are presented. Special emphasis is given to different influencing mechanisms, both legal and financial. The energy demand predictions presented in this paper are based on an end-use simulation model developed and tested with Croatia as a case study. The model incorporates the detailed modal structure of the Croatian transport sector, including road, rail, air, public and water transport modes. Four long-term energy demand scenarios were analysed till the year 2050; frozen efficiency, implementation of EU legislation, electrification and modal split. Based on that analysis, significant savings can be achieved through energy efficiency improvements, electrification of personal vehicles fleet as well as gradual modal split. Comparing the frozen efficiency scenario and electrification scenario for the year 2050, it can be concluded that energy consumption, with the heavy electrification of personal vehicles fleet, can be cut by half.",
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Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector. / Pukšec, Tomislav; Krajačić, Goran; Lulić, Zoran; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Duić, Neven.

In: Energy, Vol. 57, 01.08.2013, p. 169-176.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector

AU - Pukšec, Tomislav

AU - Krajačić, Goran

AU - Lulić, Zoran

AU - Mathiesen, Brian Vad

AU - Duić, Neven

PY - 2013/8/1

Y1 - 2013/8/1

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AB - The transport sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today, with a share of almost one third of the country's final energy demand. Considering this fact, it is very challenging to assess future trends influencing that demand. In this paper, long-term energy demand predictions for the Croatian transport sector are presented. Special emphasis is given to different influencing mechanisms, both legal and financial. The energy demand predictions presented in this paper are based on an end-use simulation model developed and tested with Croatia as a case study. The model incorporates the detailed modal structure of the Croatian transport sector, including road, rail, air, public and water transport modes. Four long-term energy demand scenarios were analysed till the year 2050; frozen efficiency, implementation of EU legislation, electrification and modal split. Based on that analysis, significant savings can be achieved through energy efficiency improvements, electrification of personal vehicles fleet as well as gradual modal split. Comparing the frozen efficiency scenario and electrification scenario for the year 2050, it can be concluded that energy consumption, with the heavy electrification of personal vehicles fleet, can be cut by half.

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KW - Transport sector

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